Trends in the markets for commercial vehicles
We expect trends in the markets for light commercial vehicles in the individual regions to be mixed again in 2017. Overall, we envisage modest growth in demand, a trend that is likely to continue in the period 2018 to 2021.
Due to the uncertainty caused by the United Kingdom’s European Union membership referendum in June 2016, we estimate that demand for light commercial vehicles in Western Europe in 2017 will be slightly below the previous year’s level. The United Kingdom is expected to register the biggest decline in the region. We anticipate that registrations in Germany will be around the previous year’s level.
In the Central and Eastern European markets, registrations of light commercial vehicles in 2017 will probably be higher than in the previous year. Also in Russia we expect the market volume to rise compared with 2016.
In North and South America, the light vehicle market is reported as part of the passenger car market, which includes both passenger cars and light commercial vehicles.
The market volume in the Asia-Pacific region in 2017 will probably record a slight increase year-on-year. We are expecting demand in the Chinese market to match the prior-year level. For India we are forecasting a considerably higher volume in 2017 than in the reporting period. In the Japanese market, the downward trend is likely to continue in 2017 at a slower pace.
In the markets for mid-sized and heavy trucks that are relevant for the Volkswagen Group, new registrations in 2017 are set to be somewhat up on the level in 2016. For the period 2018 to 2021 we anticipate a positive trend.
We expect to see demand in Western Europe and Germany decrease slightly year-on-year in 2017.
Central and Eastern European markets should record a significant increase in demand. For Russia, we anticipate a substantial recovery in demand in 2017, in contrast to the low level recorded in 2016.
Owing to a cyclical decline in the truck market, registrations in North America will probably be down substantially in 2017 on the figure for 2016.
Demand in the Brazilian market will recover in 2017 from the low level of the previous year, as the first signs of an economic recovery suggest.
Registrations in China, the world’s largest truck market, are projected to be moderately higher in 2017 than in 2016. In India, we expect significant growth in the market on the strength of the positive economic climate and the implementation of numerous infrastructure measures.
In the bus markets that are relevant for the Volkswagen Group, we expect to see a moderate increase in demand in 2017. We anticipate that demand in Western Europe in 2017 will be below the 2016 level. For Central and Eastern Europe, we are forecasting higher demand than in the previous year. In South America, new registrations will probably be noticeably higher than the prior-year level.
For the period 2018 to 2021, we expect moderate growth overall in the demand for buses in the markets that are relevant for the Volkswagen Group.