Global economic development
In our forecasts, we assume that global economic growth in 2017 will be slightly above the previous year’s level. We believe risks will arise from protectionist tendencies, turbulence in the financial markets and structural deficits in individual countries. In addition, growth prospects will continue to be hurt by geopolitical tensions and conflicts. We expect the economic upturn to continue in the large majority of industrialized nations, with stable rates of expansion overall. Most emerging markets will probably see faster growth than in the previous year. We expect the strongest rates of expansion in Asia’s emerging economies.
Furthermore, we anticipate that the global economy will also continue to grow in the period 2018 to 2021.
In Western Europe, the economic recovery is expected to decelerate to some extent in 2017 compared with the reporting period. Resolving structural problems and the uncertain outcome of the Brexit negotiations between the EU and the United Kingdom represent major challenges.
For Central Europe, we estimate that growth rates in 2017 will be similar to those of the past fiscal year. In Eastern Europe, the economic situation should stabilize further, providing the smoldering conflict between Russia and Ukraine does not worsen. Following its decline in recent years, Russia’s economic output is likely to increase slightly.
Political uncertainty and social tensions resulting primarily from high unemployment levels will probably continue to weigh on the South African economy in 2017 and keep growth down.
In Germany, GDP is slated to rise in 2017 at a similar pace as in the reporting period. The situation in the labor market is expected to remain stable, bolstering consumer spending.
For North America, we expect that the economy will expand in 2017 at a faster rate than in the previous year. Growth in the USA and in Canada is forecast to rise year-on-year, while the rate of growth in the Mexican economy is projected to decrease.
Brazil is very likely to come out of recession in 2017, showing a modest growth trend. In spite of persistently high inflation, the Argentinian economy should pick up speed again.
In 2017, the Chinese economy is expected to continue growing on a high level, but year-on-year this growth will lose momentum. For India, we anticipate an expansion rate at around the prior-year level. The economic situation in Japan is likely to remain essentially unchanged compared to the reporting period.