34.4. Market risk

4.1 Hedging policy and financial derivatives

During the course of its general business activities, the Volkswagen Group is exposed to foreign currency, interest rate, commodity price, equity price and fund price risk. Corporate policy is to limit or eliminate such risk by means of hedging. All necessary hedging transactions with the exception of the Scania, MAN and Porsche Holding GmbH (Salzburg) subgroups are executed or coordinated centrally by Group Treasury. There were no significant risk concentrations in the past fiscal year.

The following table shows the gains and losses on hedges:

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€ million

 

2016

 

2015

 

 

 

 

 

Hedging instruments used in fair value hedges

 

670

 

779

Hedged items used in fair value hedges

 

−739

 

−700

Ineffective portion of cash flow hedges

 

6

 

−46

The ineffective portion of cash flow hedges represents the income and expenses from changes in the fair value of hedging instruments that exceed the changes in the fair value of the hedged items but that are documented to be within the permitted range of 80% to 125% overall when measuring effectiveness. Such income or expenses are recognized directly in the financial result.

In 2016, €1,222 million (previous year: €3,864 million), in both cases reducing earnings, was transferred from the cash flow hedge reserve to the other operating result, €10 million (previous year: €3 million), in both cases reducing earnings, was transferred to the financial result, and €90 million (previous year: €90 million) was transferred to cost of sales, reducing earnings.

The Volkswagen Group uses two different methods to present market risk from nonderivative and derivative financial instruments in accordance with IFRS 7. For quantitative risk measurement, interest rate and foreign currency risk in the Volkswagen Financial Services subgroup are measured using a value-at-risk (VaR) model on the basis of a historical simulation, while market risk in the other Group companies is determined using a sensitivity analysis. The value-at-risk calculation indicates the size of the maximum potential loss on the portfolio as a whole within a time horizon of 40 days, measured at a confidence level of 99%. To provide the basis for this calculation, all cash flows from nonderivative and derivative financial instruments are aggregated into an interest rate gap analysis. The historical market data used in calculating value at risk covers a period of 1,000 trading days. The sensitivity analysis calculates the effect on equity and profit or loss by modifying risk variables within the respective market risks.

4.2 Market risk in the Volkswagen Group (excluding Volkswagen Financial Services)

4.2.1 Foreign currency risk

Foreign currency risk in the Volkswagen Group (excluding Volkswagen Financial Services) is attributable to investments, financing measures and operating activities. Currency forwards, currency options, currency swaps and cross-currency swaps are used to limit foreign currency risk. These transactions relate to the exchange rate hedging of all material payments covering general business activities that are not made in the functional currency of the respective Group companies. The principle of matching currencies applies to the Group’s financing activities.

Hedging transactions entered into in 2016 as part of foreign currency risk management were primarily in Argentine pesos, Australian dollars, Brazilian real, sterling, Chinese renminbi, Hong Kong dollars, Indian rupees, Japanese yen, Canadian dollars, Mexican pesos, Norwegian kroner, Polish zloty, Russian rubles, Swedish kronor, Swiss francs, Singapore dollars, South African rand, South Korean won, Taiwan dollars, Czech koruna, Hungarian forints and US dollars.

All nonfunctional currencies in which the Volkswagen Group enters into financial instruments are included as relevant risk variables in the sensitivity analysis in accordance with IFRS 7.

If the functional currencies concerned had appreciated or depreciated by 10% against the other currencies, the exchange rates shown below would have resulted in the following effects on the hedging reserve in equity and on earnings after tax. It is not appropriate to add together the individual figures, since the results of the various functional currencies concerned are based on different scenarios.

The following table shows the sensitivities of the main currencies in the portfolio as of December 31, 2016.

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DEC. 31, 2016

 

DEC. 31, 2015

€ million

 

+10%

 

−10%

 

+10%

 

−10%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Exchange rate

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EUR/USD

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hedging reserve

 

1,929

 

−2,294

 

1,969

 

−2,160

Profit/loss after tax

 

−338

 

649

 

135

 

5

EUR/GBP

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hedging reserve

 

1,202

 

−1,189

 

1,849

 

−1,850

Profit/loss after tax

 

−58

 

51

 

−46

 

48

EUR/CNY

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hedging reserve

 

665

 

−662

 

1,015

 

−1,071

Profit/loss after tax

 

6

 

25

 

69

 

−21

EUR/CHF

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hedging reserve

 

380

 

−375

 

439

 

−442

Profit/loss after tax

 

−9

 

2

 

−4

 

6

EUR/JPY

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hedging reserve

 

318

 

−318

 

248

 

−241

Profit/loss after tax

 

−7

 

7

 

1

 

−7

EUR/CAD

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hedging reserve

 

145

 

−154

 

110

 

−101

Profit/loss after tax

 

−54

 

63

 

9

 

−16

EUR/AUD

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hedging reserve

 

178

 

−182

 

92

 

−92

Profit/loss after tax

 

−23

 

26

 

−1

 

1

EUR/PLN

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hedging reserve

 

−107

 

108

 

−47

 

47

Profit/loss after tax

 

−21

 

21

 

−4

 

4

EUR/SEK

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hedging reserve

 

91

 

−89

 

112

 

−113

Profit/loss after tax

 

−24

 

23

 

−78

 

78

GBP/USD

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hedging reserve

 

106

 

−106

 

62

 

−62

Profit/loss after tax

 

2

 

−2

 

−1

 

1

CZK/GBP

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hedging reserve

 

106

 

−106

 

170

 

−170

Profit/loss after tax

 

0

 

−0

 

1

 

−1

BRL/USD

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hedging reserve

 

−20

 

20

 

−1

 

1

Profit/loss after tax

 

82

 

−82

 

77

 

−77

EUR/KRW

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hedging reserve

 

77

 

−82

 

158

 

−161

Profit/loss after tax

 

−8

 

13

 

−27

 

31

EUR/CZK

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hedging reserve

 

31

 

−31

 

41

 

−41

Profit/loss after tax

 

−43

 

43

 

3

 

−3

4.2.2 Interest rate risk

Interest rate risk in the Volkswagen Group (excluding Volkswagen Financial Services) results from changes in market interest rates, primarily for medium- and long-term variable interest receivables and liabilities. Interest rate swaps and cross-currency swaps are entered into to hedge against this risk primarily under fair value or cash flow hedges, and depending on market conditions. Intragroup financing arrangements are mainly structured to match the maturities of their refinancing. Departures from the Group standard are subject to centrally defined limits and monitored on an ongoing basis.

Interest rate risk within the meaning of IFRS 7 is calculated for these companies using sensitivity analyses. The effects of the risk-variable market rates of interest on the financial result and on equity are presented, net of tax.

If market interest rates had been 100 bps higher as of December 31, 2016, equity would have been €60 million (previous year: €71 million) lower. If market interest rates had been 100 bps lower as of December 31, 2016, equity would have been €60 million (previous year: €69 million) higher.

If market interest rates had been 100 bps higher as of December 31, 2016, earnings after tax would have been €10 million (previous year: €81 million) higher. If market interest rates had been 100 bps lower as of December 31, 2016, earnings after tax would have been €24 million (previous year: €41 million) lower.

4.2.3 Commodity price risk

Commodity price risk in the Volkswagen Group (excluding Volkswagen Financial Services) primarily results from price fluctuations and the availability of nonferrous metals and precious metals, as well as of coal, CO2 certificates and rubber. Forward transactions and swaps are entered into to limit these risks.

Hedge accounting in accordance with IAS 39 was applied in some cases to the hedging of commodity risk associated with aluminum and coal.

Commodity price risk within the meaning of IFRS 7 is presented using sensitivity analyses. These show the effect on earnings after tax and equity of changes in risk variables in the form of commodity prices.

If the commodity prices of the hedged nonferrous metals, coal and rubber had been 10% higher (lower) as of December 31, 2016, earnings after tax would have been €82 million (previous year: €75 million) higher (lower).

If the commodity prices of the hedges included in hedge accounting had been 10% higher (lower) as of December 31, 2016, equity would have been €48 million (previous year: €41 million) higher (lower).

4.2.4 Equity and bond price risk

The Spezialfonds (special funds) launched using surplus liquidity and the equity interests measured at fair value are subject in particular to equity price and bond price risk, which can arise from fluctuations in quoted market prices, stock exchange indices and market rates of interest. The changes in bond prices resulting from variations in the market rates of interest are quantified in sections 4.2.1 and 4.2.2, as are the measurement of foreign currency and other interest rate risks arising from the special funds and the equity interests measured at fair value. As a rule, we counter the risks arising from the special funds by ensuring a broad diversification of products, issuers and regional markets when investing funds, as stipulated by our Investment Guidelines. In addition, we use exchange rate hedges in the form of futures contracts when market conditions are appropriate.

As part of the presentation of market risk, IFRS 7 requires disclosures on how hypothetical changes in risk variables affect the price of financial instruments. Potential risk variables here are in particular quoted market prices or indices, as well as interest rate changes as bond price parameters.

If share prices had been 10% higher as of December 31, 2016, equity would have been €4 million (previous year: €53 million) higher. If share prices had been 10% lower as of December 31, 2016, equity would have been €28 million (previous year: €61 million) lower.

4.3 Market risk at Volkswagen Financial Services

Exchange rate risk in the Volkswagen Financial Services subgroup is mainly attributable to assets that are not denominated in the functional currency and from refinancing within operating activities. Interest rate risk relates to refinancing without matching maturities and the varying interest rate elasticity of individual asset and liability items. The risks are limited by the use of currency and interest rate hedges.

Microhedges and portfolio hedges are used for interest rate hedging. Fixed-rate assets and liabilities included in the hedging strategy are recognized at fair value, as opposed to their original subsequent measurement at amortized cost. The resulting effects in the income statement are offset by the corresponding gains and losses on the interest rate hedging instruments (swaps). Currency hedges (currency forwards and cross-currency swaps) are used to mitigate foreign currency risk. All cash flows in foreign currency are hedged.

As of December 31, 2016, the value at risk was €95 million (previous year: €179 million) for interest rate risk and €199 million (previous year: €196 million) for foreign currency risk.

The entire value at risk for interest rate and foreign currency risk at the Volkswagen Financial Services subgroup was €197 million (previous year: €245 million).